TA的每日心情 | 开心 2021-1-11 21:26 |
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发表于 2020-5-2 20:39:32
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Mr Biden looks a bit stronger than that slight edge would imply. The former vice-president is polling better than Hillary Clinton did where it matters most: among white voters in the Midwest, who have outsize importance in the electoral college. Though he is losing ground with non-whites and younger voters, their distribution across the country gives them less influence in presidential elections than they ought to have. The sudden economic slump has also affected Mr Trump’s re-election odds, though less than you might think. As a result, Mr Biden starts the campaign ahead of Mr Trump.
洋和尚君:
1、美国的总统选举并不是一人一票的直接选举,而是间接选举——
50各州,每州两名参议员,共100名参议员;434(?)名众议员,按各州人口比例产生。
参议员+众议员=534=electoral college
谁拿到各州的超过半数的直接投票,就拿走这个州的所有选举人票,这就是所谓的 winner takes all(赢家通吃)
谁只要拿到534票的半数以上就获胜。
这个洋和尚君应该是知道的,恕我啰嗦了。
2、2016年川普获胜,就是因为他拿下来了几个关键的sway state(摇摆州),他的direct vote其实要比希拉里少几百万票。
3、这一次拜登强于希拉里的地方就是 他在那些摇摆州的民调要好于希拉里——这些州虽然人少,但在选举团的重要性却不容小视。
4、虽然拜登会丢掉一些票,但这些票因为在全国的分布,所以虽然人数多,但对于拜登的选举团票影响却不那么大。
5、covid-19导致的突如其来的经济萧条也对川普的连选连任不利,但影响程度比公众所认为的要小。
2+3+4+5→ 拜登>川普
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